Stat of the Week – The Suicide Game
What if I told you that due to a single scheduling decision made by the powers that be in the NFL, the Saints will probably win less than 8 games and miss the playoffs? What if I told you there was a curse worse than the Madden Curse in the NFL (and I don’t believe in such rubbish) and to the best of my knowledge, it’s never talked about. What if I told you that that we’re doomed to lose to the Green Bay Packers on September 8th and there’s nothing we can do about it?
In 2003 the National Football League, in all their infinite wisdom, decided that they could get amazing ratings if they scheduled the reigning Super Bowl Champions to open the season on the first Thursday after Labor Day. I’m sure y’all remember back just a year ago: The Saints opened the year in the comfortable confines of the Super Dome against the Vikings after basking in all the glory that came with Lombardi Gras over the previous six months. In all honesty, the Vikings didn’t have a chance in hell in that game. The emotions pulsing throughout the Super Dome were so stifling that you could almost see it through the broadcast. No opponent had a chance. We unveiled the NFC South, NFC Championship and NFL Championship banners during a night game (which allows the locals to get nice and liquored up, the key to any good home field advantage) and I’m sure I wasn’t the only one that felt invincible going into that game.
It was our night and how dare any other team even think about coming in and spoiling it. To be fair, the Vikings shouldn’t have had to endure that. Not after that agonizing defeat in the NFCCG. It was a cruel twist of fate to have to relive those demons with the kickoff of the next season. But that’s neither here nor there. The point is the Vikings were reeling after that Thursday night game and their season never recovered.
Only, the Vikings weren’t the only team to lose that opening game to the defending Super Bowl Champions. In fact, the visiting team has gone 0-7 in what I’m calling the Suicide Game (the Thursday Night game in Week 1). But it goes beyond that game, the Suicide Game can turn a promising season into one of ruin and regret and the statistics are rather shocking.
Before I dive any deeper into this, I’m just going to post the statistics from the Suicide Game. The Super Bowl Champions are in bold.
2010 New Orleans 14 - Minnesota 9
Minnesota record in 2009: 12-4 (started the season at 10-1 and lost to the Saints in the NFCCG)
Minnesota record in 2010: 6-10 (opened the season 2-5, fired the head coach and missed the playoffs)
Suicide Game accounts for 6 losses.
2009 Pittsburgh 13 - Tennessee 10
Tennessee record in 2008: 13-3 (went 0-1 in the playoffs, losing to Baltimore in the AFC Divisional Round)
Tennessee record in 2009: 8-8 (6 game losing streak to open the season, benched starting QB and missed the playoffs)
Suicide Game accounts for 5 losses.
2008 New York Giants 16 - Washington 7
Washington record in 2007: 9-7 (lost to Seattle in Wildcard weekend)
Washington record in 2008: 8-8 (missed the playoffs)
Suicide Game accounts for 1 loss.
2007 Indianapolis 41 - New Orleans 10
New Orleans record 2006: 10-6 (opened the season 5-1 and lost the NFCCG to Chicago)
New Orleans record in 2007: 7-9 (opened the season 0-4 and missed the playoffs)
Suicide Game accounts for 3 losses.
2006 Pittsburgh 28 - Miami 17
Miami record in 2005: 9-7 (missed the playoffs, but won the last six games of the season)
Miami record in 2006: 6-10 (opened the season 1-6 and missed the playoffs)
Suicide Game accounts for 3 losses.
2005 New England 30 - Oakland 20
Oakland record 2004: 5-11
Oakland record 2005: 4-12 (opened the season 1-4 and missed the playoffs)
Suicide Game accounts for 1 loss on a pretty shitty team to begin with.
2004 New England 27 - Indianapolis 24
Indianapolis record 2003: 12-4 (lost to New England in AFCCG)
Indianapolis record 2004: 12-4 (started season 4-1, made the playoffs, lost to New England (again) in the AFCCG)
Suicide game does not affect the Colts, who has had 12 wins in every season since God created football. They did lose to the Patriots again in the AFCCG, which as an alternative, still sucks.
On average, those teams slated to open their season on that frightful Thursday night lost 2.7 more games than the year previous. The scary thing is that number is skewed low because of 2004 (apparently not even the curse of the Suicide Game can make the Colts lose more than 4 games in the regular season) and 2005 (that Oakland choice was baffling. The team didn’t really have much lower to fall anyway). So if you isolate the last five seasons, teams having to play on the road in the Suicide Game saw their record drop by an average of 3.6 games that season.
The thing that concerns me the most is that these are teams that the NFL scheduling committee believes is going to a Super Bowl contender going into the season (and the Saints fall firmly into this is category). Yet, season after season, these potential giants stumble so badly coming out of the gate that only the Colts made the playoffs in the same season. Remembering back to that 2007 Saints team, it’s obvious now that we definitely overachieved in 2006. The 2007 Saints still lacked anything resembling a defense (*shudder* Jason David *shudder*) and was learning how to exist in a world where they couldn’t depend on Deuce McAllister. But that aside, I don’t think anyone expected us to be a sub-.500 team in 2007 (especially me, I remember thinking that we were going to roll out and absolutely stomp the Colts). And yet, after that embarrassing shellacking at the hands of the Colts, we quickly went on to lose the next three games as well to Tampa Bay, Tennessee, and Carolina (by a combined 68 points). Despite a strong 2nd quarter of the 2007, things never coalesced for that particular squad.
Skipping ahead to 2009, the Tennessee Titans started the season 0-6 after losing their Suicide Game to the reigning Steelers. It was a dismal opening stretch (even by Suicide Game standards) culminating in an embarrassing 59-0 loss to the Patriots that resulted in more than a few records:
Most TD Passes in a quarter (5 by Brady)
Largest halftime lead in league history (45-0)
Tied the largest point margin since the merger
Worst loss in franchise history
There really isn’t any need to delve into the many issues the Vikings faced last year. I think we all remember the rapid spiral into ineptitude (but here’s the highlights anyway): Favre suddenly looks ancient, Brad Childress gets fired, Favre posts the lowest QB Rating of his 20 seasons (a drop of 37.3 from the year before. Probably a historic drop off, but I’m not even sure if anyone tracks that), Favre gets benched for the first time in his career and Sidney Rice suffers migraines and misses most of the season, etc. etc.
All that being said, I think we are going to win on Thursday night. As Bradley quoted from SI’s Peter King in a post a few weeks ago,
And when the Packers play the opener Sept. 8 against New Orleans, there will be a simple “2010” unveiled near the other 12 years the team won a championship. No flags, no banners. (Via)
The Packers are throwing away the advantage of that game simply because they’ve been there before. They’re holding their collective noses in the air and pretending like it’s not a big deal. No parades, no flags, no banners. How sad is that?
In one fell swoop, Green Bay has taken away the advantage of the opening Thursday night game, but left the pressure that comes with the championship season. I know that I’m probably oversimplifying the situation and that the fans at Lambeau will be excited, but will it be anything more than regular day in the office? Lambeau is always hard to play in, but without having to worry about the weather (thank God we’re playing there in September and not December) or watching them celebrate a championship I think the Saints can overcome the Suicide Game. I’m sure if you had asked any team on this list, they felt their odds going into the season were pretty good as well, but they didn’t have Drew Brees (except for that team that did have Drew Brees, but that Saints team couldn’t touch this one).
Besides, if any city can has the mojo to counter a silly NFL curse, it’s NOLA.
Give ‘em hell boys, and show them what it means to be champions. Who Dat.
-Ryan
